CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 08/02 - 06Z MON 09/02 2004
ISSUED: 07/02 17:50Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across BeNeLux ... Germany ... N Austria ... Chech Republic ... Slovakia.

SYNOPSIS

Deep upper trough will cover central and eastern parts of Europe ... associated low-level cold front will curve from the E Atlantic Ocean across N Iberia and the central Mediterranean Sea into the S Balkan/SE Europe ... and will make only minor southward progress during the period. Main features this period will be a jet streak at the W periphery of the main trough ... which will cross BeNeLux ... Germany ... Austria and the N Balkan States late Sunday night ... and a vort max farther downstream which is expected to be located over central Germany by Sunday midday.

DISCUSSION

...Central Europe ...
Influx of relatively moist low-level air into BeNeLux and Germany ... in combination with weakly unstable/saturated profiles and strong DCVA-related lift ahead of the vort maxima will likely promote numerous rain/snow/graupel showers and scattered TSTMS. There will likely be two foci for convective activity ... one is connected with the German vort max ... which is fcst to move across the Chech Republic and Slovakia into the S Belarus and N Romania late in the period. 500 hPa flow will be on the order of 40 knots ... with 850 hPa flow of about 30 knots ... and mainly straight hodographs. Expect gusty winds and maybe small hail with the stronger cells ... but severe TSTM threat appears to be rather small. Formation of small short-lived mesocyclones could be promoted over the complex terrain of central Germany and the Chech Republic ... but threat is too low for a categorical risk. TSTMS should decay with nocturnal cooling.

Strong DCVA-related lift will overspread BeNeLux and NW Germany late in the evening/night ... and move into S Germany/W Chech Republic by Monday morning. Shear and low-level theta-e look to be somewhat weaker than with Saturday night's system ... and allover severe weather threat should be limited . However ... a few strong wind gusts will likely occur ... possibly isolated exceeding severe levels. Allover severe threat appears to be too low for a SLGT ATTM.

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